Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 105%, a 5-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
57¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
54¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 54.3% of the time, and the crowd is charging 57c. Based on 1,544 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 54% of the time (n=1,544). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 78° or below at 57¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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