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S&P price on Jul 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Live Kalshi odds · 60 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
7,380 or above99%
2
7,400 or above99%
3
7,300 or above98%
4
7,310 or above98%
5
7,320 or above98%
6
7,375 or above98%
7
7,425 or above98%
8
7,315 or above97%
9
7,350 or above97%
10
7,370 or above97%
11
7,390 or above97%
12
7,395 or above97%
13
7,435 or above97%
14
7,440 or above97%
15
7,305 or above96%
16
7,325 or above96%
17
7,360 or above96%
18
7,385 or above96%
19
7,330 or above95%
20
7,335 or above94%
21
7,450 or above94%
22
7,465 or above94%
23
7,340 or above93%
24
7,410 or above93%
25
7,420 or above93%
26
7,345 or above92%
27
7,405 or above91%
28
7,415 or above91%
29
7,430 or above91%
30
7,445 or above91%
31
7,470 or above91%
32
7,355 or above90%
33
7,365 or above90%
34
7,480 or above89%
35
7,475 or above88%
36
7,455 or above86%
37
7,460 or above84%
38
7,485 or above80%
39
7,490 or above78%
40
7,495 or above70%
41
7,500 or above65%
42
7,505 or above59%
43
7,510 or above43%
44
7,595 or above39%
45
7,515 or above34%
46
7,520 or above18%
47
7,525 or above17%
48
7,530 or above5%
49
7,540 or above3%
50
7,535 or above2%
51
7,555 or above2%
52
7,545 or above1%
53
7,550 or above1%
54
7,560 or above1%
55
7,565 or above0%
56
7,570 or above0%
57
7,575 or above0%
58
7,580 or above0%
59
7,585 or above0%
60
7,590 or above0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 3999%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 19 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 7,380 or above at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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