Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 96%, a 4-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
58¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
56¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 56.3% of the time against a 58c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 327 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=474). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Michael Agwi at 58¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXITFMATCH-26AUG13CHAAGW" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Chazal vs Agwi - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXITFMATCH-26AUG13CHAAGW">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.
Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.