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What will Katie Hobbs say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?

Live Kalshi odds · 12 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Election Denier99%
2
Healthcare99%
3
Washington99%
4
Andy / Biggs99%
5
Event does not qualify1%
6
Abortion1%
7
Trump (3+ times)1%
8
Afford / Affordable / Affordability1%
9
Iran / Iranian1%
10
Israel / Israeli1%
11
SAVE America Act / SAVE Act1%
12
ICE1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 404%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 19 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Election Denier at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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