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Maine Senate winner? (Person)

Live Kalshi odds · 16 outcomesOne winner
1
Troy Jackson69%
2
Susan Collins31%
3
Graham Platner0%
4
Janet Mills0%
5
Nirav Shah0%
6
Patrick Dempsey0%
7
Valli Geiger0%
8
Brian Bryant0%
9
Shenna Bellows0%
10
Dan Kleban0%
11
Mattie Daughtrey0%
12
Sara Gideon0%
13
Stephen King0%
14
Angus King0%
15
Angus King III0%
16
Jared Golden0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 100% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
69¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
55¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-12¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 55.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 69c. Based on 118 settled other markets in the 60-69c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 63% of the time (n=1,215). The price implies 69%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Troy Jackson at 69¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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