Odds boards / Sports

Seattle vs New York Y: Total Runs

Live Kalshi odds · 11 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Over 2.5 runs scored72%
2
Over 3.5 runs scored44%
3
Over 4.5 runs scored32%
4
Over 5.5 runs scored18%
5
Over 6.5 runs scored13%
6
Over 7.5 runs scored7%
7
Over 8.5 runs scored5%
8
Over 9.5 runs scored3%
9
Over 10.5 runs scored2%
10
Over 11.5 runs scored1%
11
Over 12.5 runs scored1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 198%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
72¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
75¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+1¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 75.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 72c. Based on 136 settled sports markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 7079¢ have gone on to settle YES 75% of the time (n=233). The price implies 72%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Over 2.5 runs scored at 72¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXMLBTOTAL-26AUG131335SEANYY">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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