What are the current odds for Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026??

33,000.01 or above 22%, 32,500 to 33,000 7%, 31,500 to 31,999.99 6%, 32,000 to 32,499.99 6%, 18,999.99 or below 5%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Economics

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 30 outcomesOne winner

33,000.01 or above22%

32,500 to 33,0007%

31,500 to 31,999.996%

32,000 to 32,499.99▲16%

18,999.99 or below5%

27,000 to 27,499.994%

30,000 to 30,499.994%

31,000 to 31,499.994%

25,500 to 25,999.993%

27,500 to 27,999.993%

28,000 to 28,499.993%

28,500 to 28,999.993%

29,000 to 29,499.993%

29,500 to 29,999.993%

30,500 to 30,999.993%

19,000 to 19,499.992%

20,500 to 20,999.992%

21,500 to 21,999.992%

22,500 to 22,999.992%

23,500 to 23,999.992%

24,500 to 24,999.992%

25,000 to 25,499.992%

26,000 to 26,499.992%

26,500 to 26,999.992%

19,500 to 19,999.991%

20,000 to 20,499.991%

21,000 to 21,499.99▼11%

22,000 to 22,499.99▼11%

23,000 to 23,499.99▼11%

24,000 to 24,499.99▼11%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 103%, a 3-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

22¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

25¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 25.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 22c. Based on 829 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=829). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, 33,000.01 or above at 22¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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