Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 111%, a 11-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
95¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
87¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
-7¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 86.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 95c. Based on 238 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough entertainment history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the entertainment curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 87% of the time (n=238). The price implies 95%, so historically this band has come in about 8 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 at 95¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26AUG17" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Top US Netflix Show this week? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26AUG17">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.
Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.