ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosTaxes
☆
Odds boards / Other

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

Live Kalshi odds · 24 outcomesOne winner
1
Jay Clayton▼193%
2
Aaron Lukas2%
3
Mike Waltz2%
4
Devin Nunes2%
5
John Ratcliffe1%
6
Richard Grenell1%
7
Kash Patel1%
8
Derek Harvey1%
9
Chris Stewart1%
10
Mike Flynn1%
11
Elise Stefanik1%
12
Bill Pulte1%
13
Jason Chaffetz1%
14
Michael Ellis0%
15
Tom Cotton0%
16
Amaryllis Fox Kennedy0%
17
Stacey Dixon0%
18
Stephen Miller0%
19
Sebastian Gorka0%
20
Scott Perry0%
21
Rick Crawford0%
22
Cliff Sims0%
23
Pete Hoekstra0%
24
Jay Clayton0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 108%, a 8-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 93%, so historically this band has come in about 13 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Jay Clayton at 93¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXNEXTODNI-29" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNEXTODNI-29">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.