Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 124%, a 24-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
27¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
25¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 24.6% of the time against a 27c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,348 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough entertainment history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the entertainment curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=1,348). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Matt Damon at 27¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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