What are the current odds for AZ-05 Republican primary margin of victory??

Daniel Keenan, ≥10% 13%, Mark Lamb, 10-15% 13%, Mark Lamb, 15-20% 12%, Daniel Keenan, 0-5% 8%, Mark Lamb, 25-30% 8%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

AZ-05 Republican primary margin of victory?

Live Kalshi odds · 10 outcomesOne winner

Daniel Keenan, ≥10%13%

Mark Lamb, 10-15%13%

Mark Lamb, 15-20%12%

Daniel Keenan, 0-5%8%

Mark Lamb, 25-30%8%

Mark Lamb, 20-25%6%

Daniel Keenan, 5-10%5%

Mark Lamb, ≥30%5%

Mark Lamb, 0-5%0%

Mark Lamb, 5-10%0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 70%, a 30-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Daniel Keenan, ≥10% at 13¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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