Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

Will the margin of victory for Mark Lamb in the 2026 AZ-05 Republican primary be between 0

Mark Lamb, 0-5%

5%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 5 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 5%, so historically this band has come in about 9 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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