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Odds boards / Weather

Where will it rain on Aug 16, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 20 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Chicago99%
2
Washington DC97%
3
Philadelphia93%
4
New York City82%
5
Denver56%
6
New Orleans38%
7
Oklahoma City33%
8
Atlanta32%
9
Minneapolis18%
10
San Francisco11%
11
Las Vegas10%
12
Miami9%
13
Boston9%
14
Phoenix9%
15
Houston3%
16
Austin2%
17
Seattle2%
18
San Antonio2%
19
Los Angeles1%
20
Dallas1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 607%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 89% of the time (n=288). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 10 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Chicago at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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