What are the current odds for What will Trump say during his announcement??

Democrat 71%, Biden 67%, Communist / Communism 66%, Oil / Gas / Gasoline 66%, Iran (3+ times) 64%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Politics

What will Trump say during his announcement?

Live Kalshi odds · 27 outcomesMultiple can happen

▼80Biggest move: Crypto / Bitcoin down to 4% recently.

Democrat▼2071%

Biden▼767%

Communist / Communism▼966%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline▼1966%

Iran (3+ times)▼1664%

Stock Market62%

China / Chinese▼855%

Barack Hussein Obama▼1050%

Radical Left▼1250%

AI / Artificial Intelligence▲3045%

Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation▼3945%

Hormuz▲443%

Fraud▲2243%

Tariff▼743%

Israel / Israeli▼4638%

Afford / Affordable / Affordability▲1635%

Hottest▼5034%

Dumbocrat / Dumacrat▼5233%

Fake News▼3129%

Transgender▼5628%

MAGA / Make America Great Again▼2023%

Save America Act▼7117%

Crypto / Bitcoin▼804%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1050%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

71¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

74¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 73.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 71c. Based on 314 settled markets across all categories in the 70-79c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 74% of the time (n=314). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Democrat at 71¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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