What are the current odds for What will Trump say during RNC Convention??

Democrat 96%, Fake News 94%, Oil / Gas / Gasoline 93%, Stock Market 93%, Biden 92%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Politics

What will Trump say during RNC Convention?

Live Kalshi odds · 31 outcomesMultiple can happen

▼10Biggest move: Barack Hussein Obama down to 45% recently.

Democrat▲196%

Fake News94%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline93%

Communist / Communism▼190%

Save America Act90%

MAGA / Make America Great Again90%

Venezuela▼289%

Transgender▼288%

Radical Left▼187%

Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement▲183%

Afford / Affordable / Affordability▼183%

Supreme Court▲181%

Dumbocrat / Dumacrat78%

Mental Institution▼159%

Kamala58%

AI / Artificial Intelligence58%

Barack Hussein Obama▼1045%

Rigged Election41%

Drill Baby Drill▼535%

Ceasefire▼29%

Crypto / Bitcoin▼27%

Event does not qualify1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 2175%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

96¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

92¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 92.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 96c. Based on 721 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). The price implies 96%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Democrat at 96¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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