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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Aug 31, 2026

Live Kalshi odds · 12 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Above 82,000 MW99%
2
Above 83,000 MW99%
3
Above 84,000 MW99%
4
Above 87,000 MW96%
5
Above 88,000 MW91%
6
Above 89,000 MW84%
7
Above 90,000 MW63%
8
Above 92,000 MW1%
9
Above 93,000 MW1%
10
Above 85,000 MW0%
11
Above 86,000 MW0%
12
Above 91,000 MW0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 633%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Above 82,000 MW at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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