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30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 22, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 15 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
4.96% or above99%
2
4.98% or above99%
3
5% or above99%
4
5.02% or above99%
5
5.04% or above98%
6
5.06% or above97%
7
5.08% or above96%
8
5.1% or above93%
9
5.12% or above79%
10
5.14% or above48%
11
5.16% or above20%
12
5.18% or above7%
13
5.2% or above6%
14
5.22% or above2%
15
5.24% or above1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 943%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 19 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 4.96% or above at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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