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5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 27, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 15 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
4.21% or above99%
2
4.23% or above99%
3
4.25% or above99%
4
4.27% or above99%
5
4.29% or above99%
6
4.31% or above99%
7
4.35% or above92%
8
4.33% or above90%
9
4.37% or above54%
10
4.39% or above19%
11
4.41% or above18%
12
4.45% or above9%
13
4.47% or above5%
14
4.49% or above2%
15
4.43% or above1%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 884%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 91% of the time (n=645). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 8 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, 4.21% or above at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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