What are the current odds for What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Maine??

Democrat 96%, Trump (3+ times) 91%, Biden 87%, Manufacturing 87%, Election 85%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / Politics

What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Maine?

Live Kalshi odds · 28 outcomesMultiple can happen

▼33Biggest move: Lobster down to 26% recently.

Democrat▲196%

Trump (3+ times)▲491%

Investment / Invested▲1080%

Afford / Affordable / Affordability▲277%

Fraud▲1176%

Tariff▲272%

China / Chinese▼568%

Economy / Economic▲863%

Small Business▲1058%

Healthcare▲256%

Illegal Alien▼955%

Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime▼654%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline▲2143%

Shipbuilding▼2127%

Working Class / Middle Class▼2126%

Lobster▼3326%

Graham / Platner▼2022%

America First▼1115%

Made in America / American Made▼2712%

Event does not qualify1%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1548%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

96¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

90¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 90.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 96c. Based on 519 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 90% of the time (n=519). The price implies 96%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Democrat at 96¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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