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Odds boards / Economics

Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 12, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 30 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
Above $76.4998%
2
Above $76.9996%
3
Above $77.9996%
4
Above $78.9994%
5
Above $78.4993%
6
Above $79.9991%
7
Above $80.4988%
8
Above $79.4983%
9
Above $81.4980%
10
Above $80.9977%
11
Above $81.9957%
12
Above $83.9955%
13
Above $84.4949%
14
Above $82.4944%
15
Above $84.9942%
16
Above $82.9938%
17
Above $85.4938%
18
Above $83.4935%
19
Above $86.4928%
20
Above $86.9921%
21
Above $87.4917%
22
Above $88.9913%
23
Above $85.9912%
24
Above $87.998%
25
Above $74.490%
26
Above $74.990%
27
Above $75.490%
28
Above $75.990%
29
Above $77.490%
30
Above $88.490%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1353%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 84% of the time (n=129). The price implies 98%, so historically this band has come in about 14 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Above $76.49 at 98¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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