What are the current odds for Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 14, 2026??

Above $90.99 14%, $79.00 to $79.99 9%, $78.00 to $78.99 8%, $83.00 to $83.99 8%, $85.00 to $85.99 8%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Economics

Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 14, 2026?

Live Kalshi odds · 27 outcomesOne winner

▲9Biggest move: Above $90.99 up to 14% recently.

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 144%, a 44-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

14¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

16¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 15.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 14c. Based on 174 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 16% of the time (n=174). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Above $90.99 at 14¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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