Statistical significance

A judgment that a result is unlikely to have happened by chance. In trading, a win rate is significant when it clears a threshold (often a z-score near 2) that a no-edge trader would rarely reach by luck.

Significance is what separates a real edge from a hot streak. A great-looking record over thirty trades usually isn't significant; the same rate over several hundred trades often is. Our edge significance calculator applies this test to your record.