What are the odds of "Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 49%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 49% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party

49%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 49 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

49¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

51¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 51.1% of the time against a 49c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 88 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=1,032). The price implies 49%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 17, 2026 be above 1273.70?1%Gold price up in next 15 mins?96%Will Angela Murray be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026?6%Will Dee Valladares be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026?1%Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?2%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/CONTROLS-2026-D" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/CONTROLS-2026-D">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.