What are the odds of "Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 53%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 53% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Republican Party

53%

implied chance of YES▲ 2 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 53 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

53¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

54¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 53.8% of the time against a 53c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 104 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=886). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will the S&P 500 be between 7750 and 7774.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?52%Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 17, 2026 be above 1273.70?29%Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?2%Will the S&P 500 be above 7774.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?2%Gold price up in next 15 mins?97%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/CONTROLS-2026-R" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/CONTROLS-2026-R">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.