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Will Matthew Schultz qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?

Matthew Schultz
39%
implied chance of YES▼ 60 today
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 39 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
40¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
49¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+7¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 48.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 40c. Based on 167 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 7c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 34% of the time (n=1,467). The price implies 39%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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