Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.8 and 39.0 according to RealClearPoliti

38.8 to 39.0

5%

implied chance of YES▼ 1 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 5 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

5¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 4.8% of the time against a 5c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 147 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Atletico Mineiro To Advance99%Cruzeiro To Advance1%Gold price up in next 15 mins?80%Will Ryan Gerard win the Omega European Masters?9%Will Patrick Reed win the Omega European Masters?4%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXAPRPOTUS-26SEP04-38.9" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the President's approval rating be between 38.8 and 39.0 according to RealClearPoliti - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXAPRPOTUS-26SEP04-38.9">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.