What are the odds of "Johannus Monday wins"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 50%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 50% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Johannus Monday wins

Johannus Monday

50%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 50 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

51¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

53¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 53.2% of the time against a 51c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,106 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 54% of the time (n=1,623). The price implies 50%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Lui Maxted wins90%Miguel Damas wins16%Cezar Cretu (b. 2001) wins85%Over 8.5 runs scored37%Kai Wehnelt wins17%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.