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Will Jan Choinski win the Tirante vs Choinski: Round Of 128 match?

Jan Choinski
1%
implied chance of YES▼ 33 today
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=256). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 11 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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