Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Flavio Cobolli win the Kecmanovic vs Cobolli: Round Of 64 match?

Flavio Cobolli

54%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 54 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

54¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

55¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 55.1% of the time against a 54c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 494 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=711). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Hayato Matsuoka win the Matsuoka vs Sultanov: Semifinal match?57%Will Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni win the Todoni vs Wobker: W15 Bucharest Semifinal match?11%Will Khumoyun Sultanov win the Matsuoka vs Sultanov: Semifinal match?45%Will Ida Wobker win the Todoni vs Wobker: W15 Bucharest Semifinal match?91%Will Islam Makhachev win the Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry 330 fight by Submission?32%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXATPMATCH-26AUG15KECCOB-COB" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Flavio Cobolli win the Kecmanovic vs Cobolli: Round Of 64 match? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXATPMATCH-26AUG15KECCOB-COB">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.