Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Daniil Medvedev win the Nakashima vs Medvedev: Round Of 32 match?

Daniil Medvedev

81%

implied chance of YES▲ 28 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 81 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

81¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

83¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 83.3% of the time against a 81c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 245 settled sports markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 83% of the time (n=367). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Andrea Pellegrino win the Pellegrino vs Basavareddy: Round Of 32 match?34%Will Benjamin perez win the De Armas vs perez: M15 Asuncion Round of 32 match?72%Will Ignacio De Armas win the De Armas vs perez: M15 Asuncion Round of 32 match?31%Will Yunchaokete Bu win the Budkov Kjaer vs Bu: Round Of 32 match?28%Will Nicolai Budkov Kjaer win the Budkov Kjaer vs Bu: Round Of 32 match?71%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXATPMATCH-26AUG18NAKMED-MED" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Daniil Medvedev win the Nakashima vs Medvedev: Round Of 32 match? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXATPMATCH-26AUG18NAKMED-MED">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.