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Carlos Alcaraz wins

Carlos Alcaraz
93%
implied chance of YES▲ 2 today
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 93 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
93¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
93¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 93.1% of the time against a 93c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 552 settled sports markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.