Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the brent crude oil close price be above 66.99 USD/Bbl on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM

Above $66.99

99%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 90% of the time (n=421). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 9 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 20, 2026?15%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 20, 2026?31%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 84.00 and 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 21, 202612%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 20, 2026?95%Will the natural gas close price be above 2.970 USD/MMBtu on August 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM ED1%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXBRENTW-26AUG2117-T66.99" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the brent crude oil close price be above 66.99 USD/Bbl on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM  - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXBRENTW-26AUG2117-T66.99">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.