Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in August 2026?

2%

implied chance of YES

The crowd may be underpricing this

Contracts like this one have settled YES 8.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 2c. Based on 613 settled markets across all categories in the 0-9c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 8% of the time (n=613). The price implies 2%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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