What are the odds of "Will K27 win the MIBR vs. K27 CS2 match?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 21%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 21% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will K27 win the MIBR vs. K27 CS2 match?

K27

21%

implied chance of YES▼ 26 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 21 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

21¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

24¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 24.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 21c. Based on 416 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough esports history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the esports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 24% of the time (n=416). The price implies 21%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Esports markets

Will 100 Thieves win the 100 Thieves vs. PARIVISION CS2 match?21%Will MIBR win map 1 in the MIBR vs. K27 match?99%Will K27 win map 1 in the MIBR vs. K27 match?1%Will MIBR win the MIBR vs. K27 CS2 match?79%Will PARIVISION win the 100 Thieves vs. PARIVISION CS2 match?81%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.