What are the odds of "Black Phoenix wins"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 36%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 36% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Black Phoenix wins

Black Phoenix

36%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 36 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

32¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

38¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+4¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 37.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 32c. Based on 190 settled esports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 4c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the esports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 33% of the time (n=1,306). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Esports markets

BNK FearX Youth wins70%DRX Challengers wins31%Will Nemiga Gaming win the Nemiga Gaming vs. PuckChamp Dota 2 match?19%Will PuckChamp win the Nemiga Gaming vs. PuckChamp Dota 2 match?77%Will over 3.5 maps be played in the BNK FearX Youth vs. DRX Challengers League of Legends 99%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXCS2GAME-26AUG250400BLAEXR-BLA" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Black Phoenix wins - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXCS2GAME-26AUG250400BLAEXR-BLA">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.