Will Entertainment Tonight win the Outstanding Entertainment News Series award at the 53rd

93%

implied chance of YES▲ 14 today

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 91.2% of the time, and the crowd is charging 94c. Based on 645 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough entertainment history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the entertainment curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 91% of the time (n=645). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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