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Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish in first in the main race at the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix?

Carlos Sainz Jr.
1%
implied chance of YES
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 13 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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