Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the gold close price be above 4375 USD/t.oz on August 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Above $4375

63%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 63 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

68¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

69¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 69.0% of the time against a 68c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 42 settled other markets in the 60-69c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 65% of the time (n=361). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will Dai Dai rank #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Aug 13, 98%Nimrods Rotten Tomatoes score?71%Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Wisconsin Elections Commission 2%Will the President's approval rating be below 38.9 according to RealClearPolitics?7%Will both teams score?52%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXGOLDD-26AUG1317-T4375" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the gold close price be above 4375 USD/t.oz on August 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXGOLDD-26AUG1317-T4375">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.