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Will the gold close price be above 4120 USD/t.oz on July 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Above $4120
98%
implied chance of YES▲ 80 today
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 98 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 80% of the time (n=100). The price implies 98%, so historically this band has come in about 18 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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