Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / World

Will July 22 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/20 - 7

July 22

16%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 16 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=123). The price implies 16%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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More live World markets

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t60%Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to27%Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to80%Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to90%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t24%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.