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Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t

Above 40
4%
implied chance of YES▼ 44 today
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 4 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 4%, so historically this band has come in about 10 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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More live World markets
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t65%Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to27%Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to78%Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to90%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t24%
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