ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosTaxes
☆
Live odds / Other

Will the S&P 500 be above 7774.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT?

7,775 or above
99%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 85% of the time (n=199). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 14 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
More live Other markets
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.110?3%The End of Oak Street Rotten Tomatoes score?65%Will Dai Dai rank #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Aug 13, 98%Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?21%Will both teams score?53%
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXINXU-26AUG13H1000-T7774.9999" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the S&P 500 be above 7774.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXINXU-26AUG13H1000-T7774.9999">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.
Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.