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Luca Castelnuovo wins

Luca Castelnuovo
99%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 91% of the time (n=618). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 8 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.