Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Harrison Satara win the Satara vs Jasika: M15 Brisbane Round of 32 match?

Harrison Satara

21%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 21 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

21¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

28¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 27.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 21c. Based on 86 settled sports markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 27% of the time (n=144). The price implies 21%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Gunawan Trismuwantara win the Shin vs Trismuwantara: M15 Bali Round of 32 match?18%Will Derek Pham win the Ibraimi vs Pham: M15 Brisbane Round of 32 match?41%Will Ymerali Ibraimi win the Ibraimi vs Pham: M15 Brisbane Round of 32 match?60%Will Omar Jasika win the Satara vs Jasika: M15 Brisbane Round of 32 match?79%Will Aidan Mayo win the Michelsen vs Mayo: Round Of 32 match?8%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXITFMATCH-26JUL21SATJAS-SAT" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Harrison Satara win the Satara vs Jasika: M15 Brisbane Round of 32 match? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXITFMATCH-26JUL21SATJAS-SAT">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.