What are the odds of "Natsumi Kawaguchi wins"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 82%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 82% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Natsumi Kawaguchi wins

Natsumi Kawaguchi

82%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 82 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

82¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

85¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 84.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 82c. Based on 406 settled sports markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 85% of the time (n=569). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.