What are the odds of "Where will Julian Alvarez go next?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 42%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 42% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Where will Julian Alvarez go next?

Arsenal

42%

implied chance of YES▲ 4 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 42 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

42¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

49¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 48.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 42c. Based on 167 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=2,008). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.