Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will Team WE win the Team WE vs. Anyone's Legend League of Legends match?

Team WE

58%

implied chance of YES▲ 24 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 58 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

58¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

51¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 51.3% of the time, and the crowd is charging 58c. Based on 197 settled esports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the esports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 55% of the time (n=1,165). The price implies 58%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Esports markets

Will TEAM VISION win the TEAM VISION vs. Team Spirit Dota 2 match?83%MOUZ wins67%Team Falcons wins74%Will Team Spirit win the TEAM VISION vs. Team Spirit Dota 2 match?19%Will over 2.5 maps be played in the MOUZ vs. FUT Esports CS2 match?51%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.