Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will Top Esports win the Top Esports vs. JD Gaming League of Legends match?

Top Esports

1%

implied chance of YES▼ 54 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 7% of the time (n=709). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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More live Esports markets

FURIA wins62%Will Team Spirit win the Team Spirit vs. BetBoom Team Dota 2 match?82%FUT Esports wins40%Will BetBoom Team win the Team Spirit vs. BetBoom Team Dota 2 match?20%Will Team Spirit win map 1 in the Team Spirit vs. BetBoom Team match?99%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.