What are the odds of "Will LYON win the LYON vs. FlyQuest League of Legends match?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 39%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 39% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Esports

Will LYON win the LYON vs. FlyQuest League of Legends match?

LYON

39%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 39 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

40¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

50¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+8¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 49.7% of the time, and the crowd is charging 40c. Based on 312 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough esports history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 8c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the esports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 32% of the time (n=187). The price implies 39%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Esports markets

Will Team Syntax win the Team Syntax vs. Team Jenz Dota 2 match?33%Will Team Jenz win the Team Syntax vs. Team Jenz Dota 2 match?65%Will Bubliki win the NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS vs. Bubliki League of Legends match?1%Will NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS win the NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS vs. Bubliki League of Legends mat99%Will Skillcamp Esport win the Esprit Shōnen vs. Skillcamp Esport League of Legends match?58%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXLOLGAME-26JUL251600LYFLY-LY" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will LYON win the LYON vs. FlyQuest League of Legends match? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXLOLGAME-26JUL251600LYFLY-LY">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.