Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?

Before Nov 1, 2028

44%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 44 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

45¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

45¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 44.8% of the time against a 45c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 232 settled sports markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 50% of the time (n=312). The price implies 44%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.